Hugh Hendry is a massive idiot.
--
And Jonathan Ferro should have called him out.
Because a) I am pretty sure there’s a global monetary, financial and economic crisis on the way, and b) I am settling into early middle age more comfortably than I expected. I’ve taken to watching a bit of Bloomberg. I recently saw Jonathan Ferro interview Hugh Hendry, whom he introduced as the “acid capitalist”, which made me throw up a bit in my mouth, but I digress.
Right at the start of the interview Hendry, who is there to make the bearish case, apparently, said “It is true. There has never been a 10 year rolling period where it has not been the right thing to be long”. That sounded wrong to me. What about the great depression, I wondered? And so I had a look.
What I discovered was that, actually, there never has been a 10 year period where it was a bad idea to be long except the ten years ending:
Jun 1, 2012
May 1, 2012
Apr 1, 2012
Mar 1, 2012
Feb 1, 2012
Jan 1, 2012
Dec 1, 2011
Nov 1, 2011
Oct 1, 2011
Sep 1, 2011
Aug 1, 2011
Jul 1, 2011
Jun 1, 2011
May 1, 2011
Apr 1, 2011
Mar 1, 2011
Feb 1, 2011
Jan 1, 2011
Dec 1, 2010
Nov 1, 2010
Oct 1, 2010
Sep 1, 2010
Aug 1, 2010
Jul 1, 2010
Jun 1, 2010
May 1, 2010
Apr 1, 2010
Mar 1, 2010
Feb 1, 2010
Jan 1, 2010
Dec 1, 2009
Nov 1, 2009
Oct 1, 2009
Sep 1, 2009
Aug 1, 2009
Jul 1, 2009
Jun 1, 2009
May 1, 2009
Apr 1, 2009
Mar 1, 2009
Feb 1, 2009
Jan 1, 2009
Dec 1, 2008
Nov 1, 2008
Oct 1, 2008
Sep 1, 2008
Aug 1, 2008
Jul 1, 2008
Jun 1, 2008
May 1, 2008
Apr 1, 2008
Mar 1, 2008
and also:
Aug 1, 1984
Jul 1, 1984
Jun 1, 1984
May 1, 1984
Apr 1, 1984
Mar 1, 1984
Feb 1, 1984
Jan 1, 1984
Dec 1, 1983
Nov 1, 1983
Oct 1, 1983
Sep 1, 1983
Aug 1, 1983
Jul 1, 1983
Jun 1, 1983
May 1, 1983
Apr 1, 1983
Mar 1, 1983
Feb 1, 1983
Jan 1, 1983
Dec 1, 1982
Nov 1, 1982
Oct 1, 1982
Sep 1, 1982
Aug 1, 1982
Jul 1, 1982
Jun 1, 1982
May 1, 1982
Apr 1, 1982
Mar 1, 1982
Feb 1, 1982
Jan 1, 1982
Dec 1, 1981
Nov 1, 1981
Oct 1, 1981
Sep 1, 1981
Aug 1, 1981
Jul 1, 1981
Jun 1, 1981
May 1, 1981
Apr 1, 1981
Mar 1, 1981
Feb 1, 1981
Jan 1, 1981
Dec 1, 1980
Nov 1, 1980
Oct 1, 1980
Sep 1, 1980
Aug 1, 1980
Jul 1, 1980
Jun 1, 1980
May 1, 1980
Apr 1, 1980
Mar 1, 1980
Feb 1, 1980
Jan 1, 1980
Dec 1, 1979
Nov 1, 1979
Oct 1, 1979
Sep 1, 1979
Aug 1, 1979
Jul 1, 1979
Jun 1, 1979
May 1, 1979
Apr 1, 1979
Mar 1, 1979
Feb 1, 1979
Jan 1, 1979
Dec 1, 1978
Nov 1, 1978
Oct 1, 1978
Sep 1, 1978
Aug 1, 1978
Jul 1, 1978
Jun 1, 1978
May 1, 1978
Apr 1, 1978
Mar 1, 1978
Feb 1, 1978
Jan 1, 1978
Dec 1, 1977
Nov 1, 1977
Oct 1, 1977
Sep 1, 1977
Aug 1, 1977
Jul 1, 1977
Jun 1, 1977
May 1, 1977
Apr 1, 1977
Mar 1, 1977
Feb 1, 1977
Jan 1, 1977
Dec 1, 1976
Nov 1, 1976
Oct 1, 1976
Sep 1, 1976
Aug 1, 1976
Jul 1, 1976
Jun 1, 1976
May 1, 1976
Apr 1, 1976
Mar 1, 1976
Feb 1, 1976
Jan 1, 1976
Dec 1, 1975
Nov 1, 1975
Oct 1, 1975
Sep 1, 1975
Aug 1, 1975
Jul 1, 1975
Jun 1, 1975
May 1, 1975
Apr 1, 1975
Mar 1, 1975
Feb 1, 1975
Jan 1, 1975
Dec 1, 1974
Nov 1, 1974
Oct 1, 1974
Sep 1, 1974
Aug 1, 1974
Jul 1, 1974
Jun 1, 1974
May 1, 1974
Apr 1, 1974
Mar 1, 1974
Feb 1, 1974
Jan 1, 1974
Dec 1, 1973
Nov 1, 1973
plus:
May 1, 1950
Apr 1, 1950
Mar 1, 1950
Feb 1, 1950
Jan 1, 1950
Dec 1, 1949
Nov 1, 1949
Oct 1, 1949
Sep 1, 1949
Aug 1, 1949
Jul 1, 1949
Jun 1, 1949
May 1, 1949
Apr 1, 1949
Mar 1, 1949
Feb 1, 1949
Jan 1, 1949
Dec 1, 1948
Nov 1, 1948
Oct 1, 1948
Sep 1, 1948
Aug 1, 1948
Jul 1, 1948
Jun 1, 1948
May 1, 1948
Apr 1, 1948
Mar 1, 1948
Feb 1, 1948
Jan 1, 1948
Dec 1, 1947
Nov 1, 1947
Oct 1, 1947
Sep 1, 1947
Aug 1, 1947
Jul 1, 1947
Jun 1, 1947
May 1, 1947
Apr 1, 1947
Mar 1, 1947
Feb 1, 1947
Jan 1, 1947
Dec 1, 1946
Nov 1, 1946
Oct 1, 1946
Sep 1, 1946
Aug 1, 1946
Jul 1, 1946
Jun 1, 1946
May 1, 1946
Apr 1, 1946
Mar 1, 1946
and:
Jul 1, 1944
Jun 1, 1944
May 1, 1944
Apr 1, 1944
Mar 1, 1944
Feb 1, 1944
Jan 1, 1944
Dec 1, 1943
Nov 1, 1943
Oct 1, 1943
Sep 1, 1943
Aug 1, 1943
Jul 1, 1943
Jun 1, 1943
plus:
Oct 1, 1942
Sep 1, 1942
and:
Apr 1, 1942
Mar 1, 1942
Feb 1, 1942
Jan 1, 1942
Dec 1, 1941
Nov 1, 1941
Oct 1, 1941
Sep 1, 1941
Aug 1, 1941
Jul 1, 1941
Jun 1, 1941
May 1, 1941
Apr 1, 1941
Mar 1, 1941
Feb 1, 1941
Jan 1, 1941
Dec 1, 1940
Nov 1, 1940
Oct 1, 1940
Sep 1, 1940
Aug 1, 1940
Jul 1, 1940
Jun 1, 1940
May 1, 1940
Apr 1, 1940
Mar 1, 1940
Feb 1, 1940
Jan 1, 1940
Dec 1, 1939
Nov 1, 1939
Oct 1, 1939
Sep 1, 1939
Aug 1, 1939
Jul 1, 1939
Jun 1, 1939
May 1, 1939
Apr 1, 1939
Mar 1, 1939
Feb 1, 1939
Jan 1, 1939
Dec 1, 1938
Nov 1, 1938
Oct 1, 1938
Sep 1, 1938
Aug 1, 1938
Jul 1, 1938
Jun 1, 1938
May 1, 1938
Apr 1, 1938
Mar 1, 1938
Feb 1, 1938
Jan 1, 1938
Dec 1, 1937
Nov 1, 1937
Oct 1, 1937
and:
Mar 1, 1935
and:
Apr 1, 1933
Mar 1, 1933
Feb 1, 1933
and:
Dec 1, 1932
Nov 1, 1932
Oct 1, 1932
also:
Jul 1, 1932
Jun 1, 1932
May 1, 1932
Apr 1, 1932
and:
Feb 1, 1927
Jan 1, 1927
Dec 1, 1926
Nov 1, 1926
Oct 1, 1926
Sep 1, 1926
Aug 1, 1926
Jul 1, 1926
Jun 1, 1926
May 1, 1926
Apr 1, 1926
Mar 1, 1926
Feb 1, 1926
Jan 1, 1926
Dec 1, 1925
Nov 1, 1925
Oct 1, 1925
Sep 1, 1925
Aug 1, 1925
Jul 1, 1925
Jun 1, 1925
May 1, 1925
Apr 1, 1925
Mar 1, 1925
Feb 1, 1925
Jan 1, 1925
Dec 1, 1924
Nov 1, 1924
Oct 1, 1924
Sep 1, 1924
Aug 1, 1924
Jul 1, 1924
Jun 1, 1924
May 1, 1924
Apr 1, 1924
Mar 1, 1924
Feb 1, 1924
Jan 1, 1924
Dec 1, 1923
Nov 1, 1923
Oct 1, 1923
Sep 1, 1923
Aug 1, 1923
Jul 1, 1923
Jun 1, 1923
May 1, 1923
Apr 1, 1923
Mar 1, 1923
Feb 1, 1923
Jan 1, 1923
Dec 1, 1922
Nov 1, 1922
Oct 1, 1922
Sep 1, 1922
Aug 1, 1922
Jul 1, 1922
Jun 1, 1922
May 1, 1922
Apr 1, 1922
Mar 1, 1922
Feb 1, 1922
Jan 1, 1922
Dec 1, 1921
Nov 1, 1921
Oct 1, 1921
Sep 1, 1921
Aug 1, 1921
Jul 1, 1921
Jun 1, 1921
May 1, 1921
Apr 1, 1921
Mar 1, 1921
Feb 1, 1921
Jan 1, 1921
Dec 1, 1920
Nov 1, 1920
Oct 1, 1920
Sep 1, 1920
Aug 1, 1920
Jul 1, 1920
Jun 1, 1920
May 1, 1920
Apr 1, 1920
Mar 1, 1920
Feb 1, 1920
Jan 1, 1920
Dec 1, 1919
Nov 1, 1919
Oct 1, 1919
Sep 1, 1919
Aug 1, 1919
Jul 1, 1919
Jun 1, 1919
May 1, 1919
Apr 1, 1919
Mar 1, 1919
Feb 1, 1919
Jan 1, 1919
Dec 1, 1918
Nov 1, 1918
Oct 1, 1918
Sep 1, 1918
Aug 1, 1918
Jul 1, 1918
Jun 1, 1918
May 1, 1918
Apr 1, 1918
Mar 1, 1918
Feb 1, 1918
Jan 1, 1918
Dec 1, 1917
Nov 1, 1917
Oct 1, 1917
Sep 1, 1917
Aug 1, 1917
Jul 1, 1917
Jun 1, 1917
May 1, 1917
Apr 1, 1917
Mar 1, 1917
Feb 1, 1917
Jan 1, 1917
Dec 1, 1916
Nov 1, 1916
Oct 1, 1916
Sep 1, 1916
Aug 1, 1916
Jul 1, 1916
Jun 1, 1916
May 1, 1916
Apr 1, 1916
Mar 1, 1916
Feb 1, 1916
Jan 1, 1916
Dec 1, 1915
Nov 1, 1915
Oct 1, 1915
Sep 1, 1915
Aug 1, 1915
Jul 1, 1915
Jun 1, 1915
May 1, 1915
Apr 1, 1915
Mar 1, 1915
Feb 1, 1915
Jan 1, 1915
Dec 1, 1914
Nov 1, 1914
Oct 1, 1914
Sep 1, 1914
Aug 1, 1914
Jul 1, 1914
and:
Jul 1, 1913
Jun 1, 1913
May 1, 1913
Apr 1, 1913
Mar 1, 1913
Feb 1, 1913
plus:
Dec 1, 1912
and:
Oct 1, 1912
Sep 1, 1912
Aug 1, 1912
Jul 1, 1912
Jun 1, 1912
May 1, 1912
Apr 1, 1912
Mar 1, 1912
Feb 1, 1912
also:
Dec 1, 1911
Nov 1, 1911
Oct 1, 1911
Sep 1, 1911
Aug 1, 1911
Jul 1, 1911
as well as:
Nov 1, 1907
Oct 1, 1907
and:
Jul 1, 1897
Jun 1, 1897
May 1, 1897
Apr 1, 1897
Mar 1, 1897
Feb 1, 1897
Jan 1, 1897
Dec 1, 1896
Nov 1, 1896
Oct 1, 1896
Sep 1, 1896
Aug 1, 1896
Jul 1, 1896
and:
Dec 1, 1895
and:
Aug 1, 1893
Jul 1, 1893
plus:
Aug 1, 1891
Jul 1, 1891
Jun 1, 1891
May 1, 1891
Apr 1, 1891
Mar 1, 1891
Feb 1, 1891
and:
Dec 1, 1890
But apart from that. He’s dead right. That’s why he makes the big bucks, and gets interviewed on TV.
